Niger, a landlocked country in West Africa, is facing a political crisis after a military coup ousted its democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, on August 3, 2023.
The coup was led by Gen Abdourahmane Tchiani, the head of the presidential guards unit, who declared himself the new leader of the country. The junta, which calls itself the National Committee for the Restoration of Democracy and the Rule of Law (CNRDL), has suspended the constitution and dissolved all state institutions.
The coup has sparked widespread condemnation from the international community, especially from Niger’s neighbours and regional allies. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a bloc of 15 countries that includes Niger, has threatened military intervention if the junta does not restore constitutional order within a week. ECOWAS has also imposed sanctions on Niger, such as closing its land borders, enforcing a no-fly zone, and freezing its financial assets.
The coup has also raised concerns about the security and stability of Niger and the wider Sahel region, which is already plagued by violence from Islamist militants, ethnic militias, and criminal gangs. Niger is a key partner in the fight against terrorism, hosting several foreign military bases and troops from France, the US, and other countries. Niger also shares a long and porous border with Nigeria, Africa’s most populous and largest economy, which is facing its own security challenges from bandits and separatists.
we will provide some background information on Niger’s political history, the causes, and consequences of the coup, and the possible scenarios for the future.
A Brief History of Niger’s Politics
Niger gained its independence from France in 1960, but it has struggled to establish a stable democracy ever since. The country has experienced seven coups d’état in its history, four of which occurred since 1996. The most recent one before 2023 was in 2010, when a military junta overthrew President Mamadou Tandja, who had tried to extend his term in office beyond the constitutional limit.
The 2010 coup paved the way for a transition to democracy, which culminated in the election of Mahamadou Issoufou in 2011. Issoufou was re-elected in 2016 and became the first president in Niger’s history to complete two terms in office and hand over power peacefully to his successor. He chose Bazoum, his former interior minister and ruling party leader, as his preferred candidate in the 2020 presidential election.
Bazoum won the election with 55.7% of the vote in a run-off against Mahamane Ousmane, a former president who ruled from 1993 to 1996. Ousmane rejected the result and claimed fraud, but the constitutional court dismissed his appeals. Bazoum was sworn in on April 2, 2021, marking the first democratic transfer of power between two elected presidents in Niger’s history.
The Causes and Consequences of the Coup
The exact motives behind the coup are still unclear, but some analysts have pointed to several factors that may have contributed to it. These include:
Ethnic tensions: Bazoum is an ethnic Arab-Tuareg from northern Niger, while most of the population is Hausa or Zarma from southern Niger. Ousmane, his main rival, is a Zarma who enjoyed strong support from Hausa voters. Some of his supporters accused Bazoum of being a foreigner and an agent of France.
Economic grievances: Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world, with a GDP per capita of $414 and a Human Development Index ranking of 189 out of 189 countries. Despite having rich natural resources such as uranium, gold, and oil, most of its people live in poverty and face chronic food insecurity. The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the situation by disrupting trade and tourism. The junta has claimed that it wants to improve the living conditions of Nigerians and end corruption.
Security challenges: Niger faces multiple security threats from various armed groups operating in its territory or across its borders. These include Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in Nigeria; Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) in Mali; Ansarul Islam and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) in Burkina Faso; and various bandits and ethnic militias in all these countries. These groups have carried out frequent attacks on civilians, security forces, and foreign targets, killing hundreds and displacing thousands. The junta has said that it wants to restore security and sovereignty to Niger.
The coup has had significant consequences for Niger and the region, such as:
Political uncertainty: The junta has not announced a clear roadmap for a return to democracy, nor has it released Bazoum or other detained officials. It has also rejected any dialogue with ECOWAS or other external actors, saying that it will only talk to Nigerians. The junta has also faced resistance from some segments of the population, such as civil society groups, trade unions, and political parties, who have denounced the coup and called for the restoration of the constitutional order. The junta has also faced protests from its supporters, who have demanded the departure of France and other foreign forces from Niger.
Regional instability: The coup has raised fears that Niger could become a failed state or a proxy battleground for regional and international powers. ECOWAS has warned that the coup could embolden other military factions in the region to overthrow their governments, as seen in Mali and Burkina Faso. France has expressed concern that the coup could jeopardize its counter-terrorism operations in the Sahel, where it has about 5,000 troops under Operation Barkhane. The US, which also has a military presence in Niger, has suspended its security assistance to the country pending a review of the situation. Other countries, such as Algeria, Chad, Libya, Morocco, Russia, and Turkey, have also expressed interest or involvement in Niger’s affairs.
Humanitarian crisis: The coup has worsened the humanitarian situation in Niger, which was already dire before the political turmoil. According to the UN, about 3.8 million people in Niger need humanitarian assistance, including 2.1 million who are food insecure and 1.6 million who are displaced by violence or natural disasters. The coup has disrupted the delivery of aid and services to these vulnerable populations, as well as the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has infected more than 7,000 people and killed more than 200 in Niger.
The Possible Scenarios for the Future
The future of Niger is uncertain and depends on several factors, such as:
The cohesion of the junta: The junta is composed of different factions within the military, some of which may have divergent interests or agendas. For instance, some may be loyal to Issoufou or Bazoum, while others may be sympathetic to Ousmane or other opposition leaders. Some may be influenced by external actors, such as France or Russia, while others may be driven by nationalist or Islamist ideologies. The junta may face internal divisions or defections that could weaken its control or trigger a counter-coup.
The pressure from ECOWAS: ECOWAS has shown a firm stance against the coup and has threatened to use force if necessary to restore democracy in Niger. However, ECOWAS may face challenges in implementing its ultimatum, such as securing a mandate from the UN Security Council, mobilizing troops from its member states, coordinating with other regional and international partners, and overcoming logistical and operational difficulties. ECOWAS may also face resistance from the junta or its allies in the region, such as Mali and Burkina Faso.
The reaction of the population: Some support the junta and see it as a chance to address their grievances and aspirations. Others oppose the junta and see it as a setback for democracy and development. Some are indifferent or apathetic to the political situation and focus on their daily survival. The population may express their views through peaceful protests or violent clashes, depending on the level of repression or provocation from the junta or its opponents.
Based on these factors, some possible scenarios for Niger’s future are:
A swift return to democracy: In this scenario, the junta succumbs to the pressure from ECOWAS and other actors and agrees to hand over power to a civilian-led transitional government that organizes new elections within a short period of time. The transitional government includes representatives from all political parties and civil society groups and enjoys broad legitimacy and support from the population. The new government resumes cooperation with regional and international partners and addresses the economic, social, and security challenges facing Niger.
A prolonged military rule: In this scenario, the junta resists the pressure from ECOWAS and other actors and refuses to relinquish power or engage in dialogue with any external actor. The junta consolidates its control over all state institutions and represses any dissent or opposition from civil society groups or political parties. Also, the junta seeks support from other countries or groups that are hostile to ECOWAS or France, such as Russia or Islamist militants. The junta isolates Niger from its regional and international partners and exacerbates the economic.
